Time Estimates

Time keeps on ticking, into the future.
However, time seems to vary depending on what and where you are. Now, I'm not talking about 'a watched pot never boils' time. I'm not talking about events seeming to take longer or shorted than they seemed. I'm talking about how items actually take longer (usually) or shorter than predicted. This usually happens when dealing with individuals, rather than with people who are part of a larger system. I'm trying to generalize here instead of taking a specific area, like business, relationships, or whatever. I think self discipline has something to do with this, but also the tendency to over-promise.

If I'm driving somewhere, the further it is away, the worse my predictions become. My car GPS predicts better than I do, but I'm able to correct for conditions, rush hour, etc. Sometimes when driving to far away places I go to often, I ask my GPS to route me there, just to see what route it'll take me. Sometimes it takes different routes than I do, and I either discover a better route, or find my regular route is more complex but better.

When I was out east in mid Oct, I was using the Neverlost system, and it would take me different routes to the same place I would go to often, like from my hotel to my sister, and back. I did that route a few times, and it took me at least three different routes. I assume the time estimate was about the same for all three. I didn't mind as it got me seeing more of the area. I assume the longer route, with most of it being highway miles, was the fastest, as there were less stoplights and a higher speed. It was also easier for me as it had less turns and was better marked and lit.

When dealing with other people, I find that tradesmen and craftsman suck at these predictions. Now, I understand that the cable guy doesn't know how exactly long each job will take, but he does know what each job is, and should be able to narrow it down more than Afternoon. Others will schedule 10am, but will call letting me know he's running early or late, and that can be about an hour each way. When you go to them, like a gunsmith, TV repair, or a knife maker, I think they know what they have in the cue, know how long they'll take, and give you a good estimate. But they can't. Are Smiths closer to artists, and they need inspiration to hit them? Do they work in moods, or on an unusual schedule, like in spurts? I know that when they need items to work with that shipping is very accurate, and the shipper knows what day the order will be pulled from stock and sent out.

I wouldn't even mind broader estimates from a craftsman. 'By this time', or 'In X months' would be fine with me. I shouldn't have to take an estimate, double it and add a bit more to figure out when I should expect to see it, or contact to get an update.

I have horrible self discipline when doing stuff for myself, but am much better when someone is counting on me. When I become a craftsman, I'm going to do this right.

Guns and Games: supply problems

This week the World of Warcraft Collectible card game came out. Stores and distributors under ordered as the customers for this product are new, coming from the PC game, so the store owners (and distributors) had no way to gauge interest. Looks like the restock/reprint will be in Jan '07.

The FN FS2000, a Bullpup .223 rifle is out, but not available everywhere. I see it on gunsamerica, but the gun store I've ordered it from has no idea when they'll get it. I'm willing to wait, as I get a good price from them.

Two hot products, two supply problems. This results in hype for the product, inflated prices, and a possible overreaction in ordering leading to a glut of dead product. Oh, and a lot of annoyed stores and customers who want the product.

In the 3 tier model (manufacturer, distributor, retailer) the question is where the burden of risk should be. Manufacturers presell most new products to distributors. They may make extra, usually to take advantage of economies of scale (it's less expensive to make one run of 5000 than two runs of 2500). They've taken the risk of time and money creating the product, and if they make extra, they risk not selling it.
Distributors get preorders from retailers and may order extra as many stores don't preorder product. They also order extra as they want to be able to provide product after a maker is sold out. They risk this extra product not selling, and retailers not honoring their preorders. Distributors are like superstores as they carry a lot of product, very deep. Think of a distributor as like Sams Club, but with better selection.
Retails are the contact with the end consumer. They preorder based on gut instinct as few customers preorder. They want to carry product, but don't want to carry deeply, expecting to reorder weekly from the distributor if it sells. They want a wide selection, or at least the appearance of having a wide selection. There's a business axiom "You get 80% of your sales from 20% of your inventory". I may carry the whole Glock line, but sell few Glock 32 compared to the 17. New products sell better than old product. New products that don't sell well are dropped from any of the three tiers, good selling product stay in production and become evergreen.
The bottom line of risk IS the Bottom Line. In return for their respective risk, how much money are they making? Supermarkets make little on each item but sell many items often. Car dealers are the other end: they sell little, but make a lot on each. They both make a lot of money doing this. If you don't believe this, look at advertising. It's expensive. Who's doing a lot of it? Non-Electronic Games and guns are both industries where the retailers aren't chains. I'm not sure exactly what this means, but I assume if there was good money to be made a chain would exist to maximize it.

Hot and Cold running weather

We had a heavy snowfall last week. Nothing on the ground now. Was in the high 60s yesterday.
Life in Colorado

Hello World!

Overload in Colorado trying another BLOG here on blogger. I seem to create them but they are inaccessable and I lose them.